Probability and decisions

Practice sheet

Fresh questions from the whole chapter, to do on paper.

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  1. A random variable X takes the values 0, 1 and 2, with P(X = 0) = 29/100 and P(X = 1) = 13/100. Find P(X = 2).
  2. X takes the values 0, 1, 2 with P(X = 0) = 25/100 and P(X = 1) = 15/100. Find P(X ≥ 1).
  3. Which list could be the probabilities of a random variable with three values?
    1. 0.1, 0.5 and 4/10
    2. 0.5, 0.5 and 0.1
    3. 0.8, 0.4 and −0.2
  4. X takes the values 0, 1, 2 with probabilities 51/100, 15/100 and 34/100. Find E(X).
  5. X = 1 with probability 7/10 and X = 0 otherwise. Find the standard deviation of X.
  6. A game costs 1 dollar. You win 9 dollars (net) with probability 1/7; otherwise you lose your dollar. Find your expected net gain, in dollars.
  7. A fair coin lands heads 7 times in a row. What is the probability of heads on the next toss?
    1. 1/2: the coin has no memory
    2. Less than 1/2: tails is due
    3. More than 1/2: heads is on a streak
  8. What does it mean that the probability of rain tomorrow is 0.7?
    1. On many days like tomorrow, it rains on about 70% of them
    2. It will rain for 70% of the day
    3. It will rain if the probability is above 0.5
  9. To simulate a free throw made with probability 0.6 using random digits 0–9, how many of the ten digits should stand for 'made'?
  10. 12% of a population has a condition. A test is positive for 86% of people with the condition and for 11% of people without it. Find P(positive).
  11. 22% of a population has a condition. A test is positive for 81% of people with the condition and for 12% of people without it. Find P(condition | positive).
  12. A disease affects 1 in 1,000 people. A test is 93% accurate for both sick and healthy people. Your test is positive. What is most likely?
    1. You are still more likely healthy: false positives from the many healthy people outnumber the true positives
    2. You are about 93% likely to be sick
    3. You are certainly sick