Intervals for a difference of proportions or means

About this lesson

Statistics (AP-aligned) › Confidence intervals

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Intervals for a difference of proportions or means

Confidence intervals.

Warm-up

Three quick questions from earlier lessons.

Discover

A 95% interval for p1−p2p_1 - p_2 is (0.02, 0.10). What does it suggest about the two proportions?

  1. p1p_1 appears larger
  2. No difference

Key idea

Compare two groups with an interval for the difference.

(p^1−p^2)±z∗p^1(1−p^1)n1+p^2(1−p^2)n2(\hat{p}_1 - \hat{p}_2) \pm z^*\sqrt{\dfrac{\hat{p}_1(1 - \hat{p}_1)}{n_1} + \dfrac{\hat{p}_2(1 - \hat{p}_2)}{n_2}}; for means (xˉ1−xˉ2)±t∗s12n1+s22n2(\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) \pm t^*\sqrt{\dfrac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \dfrac{s_2^2}{n_2}}. If 0 is in the interval, "no difference" is plausible.

Worked example

p^1=0.6\hat{p}_1 = 0.6, p^2=0.5\hat{p}_2 = 0.5, n1=n2=100n_1 = n_2 = 100.

SE=0.0049=0.07SE = \sqrt{0.0049} = 0.07
0.0024 + 0.0025.
ME≈0.137ME \approx 0.137
1.96 × 0.07.
(−0.037,0.237)(-0.037, 0.237): no convincing difference
0.1 ± 0.137 contains 0.

Your turn, guided

Your turn: variances of the two estimates are 0.0009 and 0.0016. The SE of the difference.

0.050.05
√0.0025.

Practice ★

  1. Two groups have sample means 90 and 58. What is the point estimate of μ₁ − μ₂?
  1. Independent samples of 100 give p̂₁ = 1/10 and p̂₂ = 6/10. Using z* = 1.96, find the margin of error for p₁ − p₂.
  2. Independent samples of 100 give p̂₁ = 3/10 and p̂₂ = 8/10. Using z* = 1.96, find the margin of error for p₁ − p₂.

Watch out!

Practice ★★

  1. A 95% interval for p₁ − p₂ is (−0.07, 0.08). What does it suggest?
    1. No convincing difference: 0 is a plausible value of p₁ − p₂
    2. p₁ is larger, since the upper end is positive
    3. It proves p₁ = p₂

Exit ticket

Three questions to check you have got it.

  1. Independent samples of 100 give p̂₁ = 1/10 and p̂₂ = 6/10. Using z* = 1.96, find the margin of error for p₁ − p₂.
  2. Independent samples of 100 give p̂₁ = 3/10 and p̂₂ = 8/10. Using z* = 1.96, find the margin of error for p₁ − p₂.
  3. Independent samples of 100 give p̂₁ = 7/10 and p̂₂ = 8/10. Using z* = 1.96, find the margin of error for p₁ − p₂.

Summary card

Intervals for differences

Estimate difference ± critical value × √(sum of variances).

Watch out: does the interval contain 0?

End of the lesson

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